$33bn bombshell: Victorian energy bills to skyrocket under Coalition and One Nation energy plans

Environment Victoria

Wednesday 9 September, 2026

For immediate release

Delaying the transmission projects needed to connect new wind, solar and storage to the grid will cost Victorian households, businesses and the state at least $33 billion by 2050, and drive power bills up, new independent analysis finds.

According to analysis by Nexa Advisory, a mere four-year delay to the VNI West and WRL transmission lines will push up the cost of generating Victoria’s electricity by $33 billion. Cancelling the projects altogether, as proposed by One Nation and the Liberal-National Coalition, will significantly compound this cost.

The cost of delay or cancellation of VNI-West will push up power bills for a typical Victorian household up to $472 over five years. A small business would be slugged an extra $4,719 and a large business $11,797. These costs would be even higher if the projects are cancelled altogether.

Delaying or cancelling the projects would also make Victoria’s electricity system less reliable, resulting in more blackouts and increasingly reliant on extremely expensive gas generation that was only designed as a ‘last resort’ to be used only when really needed.

Backlogs for gas turbine equipment are ballooning in the face of intense global demand, betting on gas-fired generation to fill the gap is a threat to energy security, as well as a guarantee of higher bills. Coupled with the reality of Victoria’s rapidly declining gas reserves, it is clear that turning to gas now would not only be costly, but risky too.

This warning comes as Yallourn Power Station, which supplies around a fifth of Victoria’s electricity, prepares to close in 2028. The ageing plant was hit by unplanned outages for 32 per cent of 2024, its worst rate on record, and Nexa Advisory found it cannot be relied on as a fallback if replacement capacity is delayed.

Meanwhile, Victoria’s clean energy transition is already delivering results. The state’s electricity mix reached 44.6 per cent renewables in 2025, beating its own target, and Victoria continues to record the lowest average wholesale power prices of any state in the country, cheaper than New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.

Environment Victoria CEO, Jono La Nauze said:

“Renewable energy is already half the cost of electricity from coal and gas - and One Nation and the Coalition want to take that saving away. Independent modelling is now telling us what that would cost: at least $33 billion, meaning higher bills for every household and business in the state.

“Victoria already has the cheapest power in the country because of renewable energy. The risk to Victorians is that the next government abandons the projects designed to deliver cheaper, cleaner energy to our homes and businesses, just as they’re starting to pay off.”

“This modelling shows householders will be slugged with a $472 bill increase if projects are delayed, but it gets even worse if One Nation and the Coalition actually follow through on cancelling them. Nexa Advisory is clear that cancellation would compound the problem, driving energy bills higher and risking the stability of the grid. Victorians deserve to know that the real cost of these parties’ policies is catastrophic.”

“One Nation and the Coalition still haven’t answered the basic question: how do you keep prices down when coal closes, if you won’t build the renewable energy and transmission to replace it? Increasing costs on individual projects are a reason to fix delivery and hold delivery bodies accountable, not a reason to abandon Victoria’s plan for affordable, homegrown energy.”

“Betting on gas - when local supplies are nearly gone and amongst a global crunch for gas turbines - is not a credible plan to keep the lights on.”

Background for editors:

The report, ‘Delay is Putting Victoria’s Energy Security at Risk’, was prepared by Nexa Advisory and commissioned by Environment Victoria.
This release follows a separate release from Nexa Advisory setting out the report’s findings, published at 12:01am, Wednesday 9 September 2026.
Nexa Advisory’s modelling finds that a disorderly transition — where transmission and renewable energy projects are delayed — would increase Victoria’s total wholesale electricity costs by $33.0 billion between 2027 and 2050, compared to an orderly transition. (Source: Nexa Advisory, ‘Delay is Putting Victoria’s Energy Security at Risk’, August 2026, p.19)
Between 2027 and 2031, delays would cost up to $472 for a representative household, up to $4,719 for a representative small business, and up to $11,797 for a representative large business. (Nexa, p.19)
Average Victorian wholesale prices would rise from $62.29/MWh under an orderly transition to $85.20/MWh under a disorderly transition - a 37 per cent increase - between 2027 and 2031. (Nexa, p.18)
A disorderly transition would require Victoria to burn an extra 118 PJ of gas for electricity generation between 2027 and 2035. (Source: Nexa Advisory, ibid., p.16)
Yallourn Power Station’s annual unplanned outage rate reached 32 per cent in 2024, its worst rate on record. (Nexa, p.7)
While permanent cancellation of transmission projects was not modelled, Nexa Advisory states that cancelling core infrastructure like WRL or VNI West without equivalent replacement would constrain renewable generation capacity and could prolong or compound the modelled impacts on reliability, gas dependence, wholesale prices and emissions. (Nexa, p.3)
Victoria’s renewable electricity share reached 44.6 per cent in 2025, beating the state’s 40 per cent target. (Victorian Government, energy.vic.gov.au, 2026)
Victoria recorded the lowest average wholesale electricity price of any state over the past year, at $78/MWh, compared to $103 (NSW), $96 (Tasmania), $87 (South Australia) and $85 (Queensland). Renew Economy, 12 March 2026

Contact details:

James Norman, Media and Content Manager at Environment Victoria on 0451 291 775 or via [email protected]