Antarctica is giving us a warning of sea level rise decades in advance - now is our time to act

Monash University

Scientists predict that the next three to five decades provide a critical window to anticipate and plan for Antarctic ice loss and its contribution to sea level rise.

Research published in Nature, led by Monash University researcher Dr Felicity McCormack from Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), looks at the predictability of Antarctic ice loss and what this means for sea level rise projections.

Based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global sea level rise exceeding two metres by 2100 cannot be ruled out under high-emission scenarios due to the large-scale collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

This level of sea level rise would expose one quarter of Australian residential properties to inundation, render much sovereign territory across the Pacific uninhabitable, and displace hundreds of millions of people globally, representing one of the most significant humanitarian and economic challenges in history.

However, the trajectory of sea level rise between now and 2100 remains deeply uncertain, largely due to the difficulty of projecting Antarctic ice loss. Under a worst-case scenario, the IPCC predicted that the rate of sea level rise from Antarctic ice loss alone could nearly double within the next 30 years. But until now, there has been no robust estimate of Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise over the next few decades, the timescale most critical for coastal planning and policy decisions.

The research aims to answer the question of how much ice Antarctica will lose over the next 30-50 years, and whether that loss can be predicted reliably enough to give governments and nation states sufficient lead time to respond effectively. The study assessed predictability in ice sheet model projections of sea level rise within this near-term window.

Dr McCormack explains how Antarctic ice loss exhibits a strong, steady predictability until the mid-century, allowing for reliable estimations regarding sea level rise.  

“If ice sheet models accurately reproduce the rates of ice loss we observe today, we can have confidence in using those same models to reliably predict Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise over the next 30 to 50 years. Accurately predicting how much and how fast global sea levels will rise offers vital information for future coastal planning and government policy,” said Dr McCormack.

However, this predictability breaks down by the end of the 21st century when physical processes that can rapidly accelerate ice loss become increasingly likely. For example, ice resting on bedrock below sea level can enter a rapid retreat, which once triggered, is difficult to reverse and could drive ice loss far beyond what near-term climate change projections would suggest.

“The research findings provide a roadmap for future climate planning. By improving how ice sheet models represent critical physical processes that lead to rapid ice sheet retreat, we can narrow the deep uncertainty that hampers reliability of long-term sea level rise projections,” Dr McCormack said.

The researchers have identified that a window of opportunity for climate action does exist. The next three decades represent a period of well-constrained sea level rise trajectories and are critical to strategic adaptation planning.

Professor Steven Chown, Director of SAEF says that the time to act is now, within the window of opportunity, and we must invest in better observational capabilities.

“The predictability identified in this research does not reduce long-term risk, instead it provides a defined period in which to act with greater confidence. Improvements in observational systems and ice sheet model developments will directly translate into more reliable sea level projections for short-term planning horizons,” Professor Chown said.

In relation to engaging Indo-Pacific partners, Professor Chown explained that Australia is well-positioned to lead regional efforts to translate these findings into practical adaptation frameworks.

“Pacific Island governments require reliable near-term projections to make decisions about infrastructure, community relocation, and long-term land use. Engagement on sea level science and adaptation planning represents a foreign policy opportunity and a regional responsibility,” Professor Chown said.

Dr McCormack said establishing a clear pathway for integrating ice sheet model projections into sea level rise policy frameworks is critical.

“When models replicate present-day observations of Antarctic ice mass loss, their projected ice mass loss rates over the coming several decades provide a reliable foundation for planning and adaptation, while longer-term sea level rise uncertainties highlight the need for ongoing development,” Dr McCormack said.

Framing Antarctic projections around these two time horizons – short-term predictable ice loss and long-term feedback-dominated change – may provide a clearer foundation for a robust policy response.

About Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future

Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future is a Monash-led research and workforce development program that is a central part of the Australian Antarctic Program. SAEF is delivering leading Antarctic and Southern Ocean science to benefit Australians, our neighbours in the Asia-Pacific, and society around the globe in the context of a changing climate.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Read the research paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10614-4

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Dr Felicity McCormack, Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF) - Currently overseas but will be available for interviews via WhatsApp +61 480 229 799

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