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Australia's avocado production rebounding, with supply and exports set to smash records

Rabobank

Australia’s avocado production is rebounding, with supply and exports of the popular food item heading for record levels, Rabobank says in a new global report.

 

In its Global Avocado Update 2026, the specialist agribusiness bank’s RaboResearch division says after Australian production declined in the 2024/25 season – due to “natural biennial bearing cycles” for avocado crops – supply is expected to soar to record levels of 170,000 metric tonnes in coming seasons, based on industry estimates.

 

This will see Australian avocado exports also lift to record highs.

 

And for Australian consumers, abundant supply is expected to see retail prices for avocados remain relatively low compared with historical levels, according to report co-author, RaboResearch senior analyst Michael Harvey.

 

Mr Harvey said while Australian avocado production had declined by 15 per cent in the 2024/25 season – due to ‘alternative bearing’, the natural cycle where trees yield larger amounts of fruit every second year – production was overall on a growth trajectory as the nation’s avocado sector matures.

 

“Australia’s avocado sector has undergone structural expansion in recent years, underpinned by increased plantings as well as yield gains as newer orchards reach maturity,” he said.

 

And the medium-term outlook for the Australian avocado sector looks positive, the report said, with local and export demand continuing to grow.

 

Queensland remains the largest avocado-producing state in Australia, accounting for 50 per cent of national output, RaboResearch said, followed by Western Australia.

 

“Growing conditions for the commencement of the 2026 season have been most favourable in these key regions,” Mr Harvey said.

 

Exports

 

As for avocado exports, the report says, Australia has overall continued to lift volumes in recent years. For calendar year 2025, exports reached a record high of approximately 18,400 metric tonnes.

 

Asia remains a core destination for Australian avocados, Mr Harvey said, led by established markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. “And with emerging markets across other South-East Asian economies and the Middle East,” he said.

 

Average export prices for Australian avocados ranged between AUD 5.20 and AUD 5.24 per kilogram between 2024 and early 2026, the report said.

 

In the domestic Australian market, while New Zealand supplied 6000 metric tonnes of avocados to fill the “seasonal gap” in 2025, the report says New Zealand imports to Australia are declining, with weaker demand due to increased local supply.

 

Global update

 

Globally, the report says, avocado exports remain on a strong growth trajectory off the back of robust output from longstanding production “heavyweights”, and rising production across a host of emerging players.

 

“Global exports have risen dramatically, from 0.73 million metric tonnes in 2010/11 to more than 3.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, with Mexico and Peru as the dominant contributors alongside growing volumes from others like Kenya, Spain, Colombia and South Africa,” Mr Harvey said.

 

The report says global avocado volumes are expected to increase further in the 2026/27 season, however the developing El Niño is set to heighten, but unevenly distribute, weather risks.

 

“Rather than a broad supply squeeze, El Niño will likely increase variability of yields and fruit sizes across regions, thereby amplifying seasonal imbalances and market volatility,” Mr Harvey said.

 

On the demand side, the report says, some established markets are showing signs of maturity while new players continue to increase demand.

 

“Global avocado demand continues to display a dual-speed dynamic, with mature markets approaching saturation, while emerging consumption regions sustain structurally higher growth,” Mr Harvey said.

 

“Mexico and Chile remain clear outliers in per capita/ per annum availability (the standard measure used to estimate average per-person consumption) at approximately 14 kilograms and nine kilograms respectively, suggesting limited headroom relative to emerging consumption regions.

 

“In contrast, steady expansion across large population markets like the EU, which reached 2.24kg per capita in 2025, indicates significant growth potential.

 

“Countries such as Italy, Germany and Turkey are also exhibiting rapid relative growth, pointing to broad-based adoption rather than niche consumption.”

                       

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Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 125 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 35 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is one of Australasia’s leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 87 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.