Global steel crisis deepens and Australia's industry is on the front line
Australian Steel Institute
A new report from the OECD has confirmed what Australian steel fabricators have been experiencing for years: a worsening global glut of heavily subsidised steel is distorting markets, destroying competition and threatening the viability of market-based producers worldwide.
Peak body for the local steel industry the Australian Steel Institute (ASI) says the timing could not be more significant and relevant to the current ASI-initiated Productivity Commission Safeguard investigation into a glut of low-price imported fabricated steel flooding the Australian market.
The OECD Steel Outlook 2026, released on 4 June in Paris, paints a stark picture of the global steel industry. Global excess steel making capacity is projected to rise from 640 million tonnes in 2025 to 745 million tonnes by 2028 — a figure that would exceed the combined annual steel production of all OECD member countries by 319 million tonnes. Over the same period, demand is forecast to grow by just 34 million tonnes, while planned new capacity additions reach up to 139 million tonnes.
The OECD identifies the root cause clearly: escalating government subsidies in major non-OECD steel-producing economies, with the median producer in some countries receiving up to 15 times more support relative to their total assets than producers in market-based economies — up from 10 times in 2023. The result is a flood of artificially priced steel into open markets, with record export volumes reaching 131 million tonnes in China alone in 2025.
The OECD also warns that the crisis is now threatening the green steel transition, with around one-fifth of planned low-carbon steelmaking projects worldwide suspended due to unfavourable market conditions and unfair competition.
Australia’s Trade and Tourism Minister, Senator Don Farrell, was present in Paris for the OECD Ministerial Council Meeting at which the Steel Outlook 2026 was launched. The minister stated he was in Paris to promote trade and industrial policies that support open markets and deliver tangible benefits for the Australian economy — a position the ASI strongly endorses, and which directly supports the case for Safeguard measures currently before the Productivity Commission.
The ASI’s chief executive Mark Cain said the OECD report was unambiguous in its findings.
“The OECD has now confirmed, in the clearest possible terms, that subsidised overcapacity is distorting global steel markets and causing real injury to market-based producers. Australian fabricators have been living this reality for years. The Productivity Commission inquiry is our opportunity to respond with the kind of targeted, proportionate measure the OECD itself says is justified. We respectfully urge the commission to consider the OECD report as part of the evidence being gathered.”
The ASI lodged its application for Safeguard measures with the Australian Government in late 2025, prompting the Productivity Commission inquiry now underway. The inquiry has received 59 non-confidential and 21 confidential submissions, and concluded a round of public hearings in May 2026. Supplementary submissions have since been provided to the commission, including a detailed submission from the ASI reinforcing the evidence of import surge, industry injury and the public interest case for a tariff rate quota — with sovereign fabrication capability valued at between $3.4 billion and $7.4 billion in net present value terms.
The ASI’s supplementary submission is available at: ASI Supplementary Submission.
Industry members have also put their case directly on the record. Brezac Constructions, drawing on more than 35 years of operational experience, lodged a supplementary submission urging the commission to maintain focus on the direct relationship between the surge in imports and injury to the domestic fabrication industry. That submission is available at: Brezac Supplementary Submission.
The ASI extends its sincere thanks to all members and organisations who have contributed to the campaign — whether through lobbying, hosting politicians at their facilities, preparing submissions, giving evidence at the public hearings or providing supplementary submissions. Their commitment has been instrumental.
The Productivity Commission is due to release its interim report by September 2026, after which all parties will have the opportunity to respond. The ASI will continue to advocate strongly on behalf of the industry throughout that process.
For more information on the inquiry, visit pc.gov.au/inquiries-and-research/steel-safeguards.
ENDS
Media enquiries:
Steven Andrew
ASI marketing and communications manager
0473 480 964 | [email protected]
Notes to editors
About the OECD Steel Outlook 2026
The OECD Steel Outlook 2026 was released on 4 June 2026. It projects global steel excess capacity to reach 745 million tonnes by 2028, driven by subsidised capacity expansion in non-OECD economies. The full report is available at oecd.org/en/topics/steel.
About the Australian Steel Institute
The Australian Steel Institute (ASI) is the peak body representing Australia’s steel industry, including manufacturers, distributors, fabricators and allied industries. The ASI advocates for policies that support a competitive, sustainable and sovereign Australian steel industry.
About the Productivity Commission inquiry
The Productivity Commission is conducting an inquiry into whether Safeguard measures for imported fabricated structural steel products are justified and appropriate to protect Australian industry from significant injury. The interim report is due by September 2026.