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Monash expert: Trump's tariffs, the global trade fallout and impact on Australia's economy

Monash University

Monash University experts are available to comment on the United States imposing tariffs of at least 10 per cent on almost all foreign imports from Saturday, its impacts on global trade and the Australian economy. 

 

Dr Nicola Charwat, Senior Lecturer, Business Law and Taxation, Monash Business School

Contact details: +61 455 622 789 or [email protected] 

Read more of Dr Charwat’s commentary on Trump’s tariffs here: Monash Lens  

 

• International trade law

• Global trade fluctuations

• History of international trade

The following can be attributed to Dr Charwat: 

“The ‘liberation day’ tariffs represent the culmination of the abandonment of multilateralism and the turn to mercantile, power-based trade relations. I find these tariffs are particularly significant because they target essentially all trading partners simultaneously, regardless of alliance status or existing agreements. In contrast to the usual and occasional bilateral trade disputes, this approach suggests a systemic rejection of the post-war trading order.

 

“The framing is also problematic – they are reciprocal in the face of perceived 'unfairness' to the US rather than specific economic harms. It appears that Trump or the United States can redefine any trade policy difference as unfairness and reach for tariffs. This gives rise to a high level of uncertainty.

 

“Australia finds itself in a particularly difficult position despite seemingly favorable circumstances: the US maintains a trade surplus with Australia (something Trump typically values), Australia imposes no direct tariffs on US goods, and has been a steadfast security ally. Yet even these advantages may not secure an exemption.

 

“The tariff threat exposes the limits of traditional diplomacy in Trump's transactional worldview. Despite Australian negotiators making logical arguments about the trade relationship, the US administration appears unmoved without concessions of ‘great value’." 

 

 

Professor Robert Brooks, Professor of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash Business School

Contact details: +61 400 837 287 or [email protected]

Read more of Professor Brooks’ commentary here: Monash Lens  

 

• Economic impact of tariffs

• Impact on agribusiness

The following can be attributed to Professor Brooks: 

"The direct impact of Trump’s tariffs on Australia’s economy will probably be minimal. However, the indirect effects could be more significant – particularly if Australia chooses to engage in a tit-for-tat trade war, which would ultimately dampen global economic growth.

 

"What happens to growth in China will be critical. Any slowdown there, particularly as a result of escalating trade tensions, could have ripple effects for the Australian economy.

 

"Even though we've been called 'wonderful people,' Australia's beef exports are facing tariffs as a result of a biosecurity measure. Regardless, our beef industry will need to look for alternative markets to stay viable.

 

"I do see the government is preparing to offer financial support, but this is really about more than subsidies. The key will be opening up new market access and negotiating better trade routes for our agribusinesses."

For any other topics on which you may be seeking expert comment, contact the Monash University Media Unit on +61 3 9903 4840 or [email protected]