Monash Expert: Understanding Australia's COVID-19 epidemics

Monash University

As the world deals with a new Covid-19 variant, XEC, new Monash University-led research has shown how important short-lived immunity and immune-escape of new variants have been to driving waves of transmission in Australia.

Available to comment:

Associate Professor James Trauer, Head of the Epidemiological Modelling Unit for the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
Contact: +613 9903 4840, or media@monash.edu
Read more of Associate Professor Trauer’s commentary in Monash Lens.

The status of COVID-19 in Australia now
The likely impact of COVID-19 moving forward
The need for continued vaccination

The following can be attributed to Associate Professor Trauer:

“Our research showed that Australia's major Omicron waves in 2022 were driven by substantial immune-escape of new variants combined with immunity that protected against infection only lasting around three to four months.

“The ‘shadow lockdown’ in summer 2021-2022, when Australians reduced their social interaction in the absence of a government mandate, likely protected us from a considerably larger first epidemic wave. Only around 20 to 40 per cent per cent of all COVID-19 episodes were notified through our surveillance systems, even with our highest levels of testing.

“I think ATAGI’s current guidelines strike the right balance and that people should get vaccinated if they are at-risk and eligible. As the virus continues to evolve, the more recent vaccines are more protective against the current variants - so it's more important if you haven't been vaccinated since the start of last year.”

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