Monash Experts: Nepean by-election
Monash University
Monash Experts: Nepean by-election
With the Victorian state seat of Nepean by-election taking place this Saturday 2 May, Monash experts are available to talk about whether the Liberals can hold the seat ahead of the Victorian State election later this year. The experts have also written a piece in Monash Lens about how this by-election, as well as next month’s Federal Farrer by-election, will be critical to determining the future of One Nation in Australian politics.
Available to comment:
Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, Head of Politics and International Relations, Monash School of Social Sciences
Contact: +61 402 851 224 or [email protected]
Comments attributable to Associate Professor Ghazarian:
“The by-election will sort out fact from fiction – whether the Coalition is in deep trouble or is One Nation on an upward trajectory. We’ll get a sense of where the Liberal Party currently stands with a constituency that has traditionally supported the party in the past. Since taking over as leader late last year, Jess Wilson has appeared popular in opinion polls. Losing Nepean could potentially weaken her leadership and the Liberal Party’s momentum in the lead up to the general election.
“Momentum is something that One Nation seems to be enjoying at the moment. Opinion polls continue to show the party is achieving significant support in Victoria. The by-election provides the party with a perfect opportunity to test its campaign strategies before November. If it was to win this by-election, it would cause panic within the Coalition and could change the political debate in the State.
“With Labor deciding to not contest, however, there will be many Labor voters unsure of who to vote for. They will be critical in determining whether they support their party’s traditional opponent or whether they take the opportunity to support a non-major party candidate to wrest Nepean away from the Liberal Party.”
Dr Benjamin Moffitt, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Monash School of Social Sciences
Contact: +61 477 204 086 or [email protected]
Comments attributable to Dr Moffitt:
“The stage is set: a traditionally Liberal-held seat. Labor sitting it out. One Nation making waves. Sometimes a by-election is just a by-election, but this one might tell us something important about the state of Victorian and Australian politics more generally.
“First, it will tell us just how deep the existential crisis of the Liberal Party – both in Victoria and federally – is. If they can’t hold this seat, where they have a margin of 7.1 per cent and their (former) main opponent, the Labor Party, isn’t even running – it’s a full-blown disaster for them.
“Second, it will tell us if the South Australian State elections were just a fluke for One Nation, or whether Pauline Hanson’s party is truly consolidating its position as the third party in Australian politics – and whether similar results might be seen in November in the Victorian State elections.”
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