New research shows why Australia's fertility is declining
e61 Institute
The main driver of Australia’s plummeting fertility rate is parents having fewer children - not the rise in people not having children, new research by the e61 Institute has found.
Australia’s fertility rate has fallen since the 1960s to a record low of 1.5 births per woman – well below the 2.1 needed for population replacement.
A new analysis of census data from 2006 to 2021 has found that - among women nearing the end of their reproductive window - two thirds of the decline is due to mothers having fewer children, and one third is due to the rising number not having children at all.
“The number of women who never have children is increasing - but this is not the main driver of the declining fertility rate,” said e61 Research Manager Dr Pelin Akyol.
“Our research finds the main cause of the declining fertility rate is parents having fewer children, leading to smaller family sizes.
Among women aged 50-54, who have most likely completed their fertility, the share without children increased from 13 per cent to 16 per cent in the 15 years to 2021. But, more significantly, the average number of children for mothers in that age group dropped from 2.53 to 2.39.
The research also found that women and men are having children later in life.
“In the 1970s, births were most common among women in their early twenties, but today the highest share of births is to women in their early thirties. The trend is similar for fathers,” said Dr Akyol.
Earlier e61 Institute research found that concerns about the cost of raising children and job security have consistently ranked as the most important factors for both men and women in the decision to have a child.
In recent years, three factors have increased in importance, particularly for young women: The cost of raising children; time and energy for one’s career; and availability and affordability of quality child care.
Dr Akyol said there are several lessons for policymakers seeking to respond to Australia’s record-low fertility.
“There is no silver bullet solution to Australia’s record-low fertility. Financial incentives can be effective but cannot fully counter broader demographic trends. In fact, there are no simple solutions. Policymakers considering new measures must account for the trade-offs involved. Universal schemes have large fiscal costs and can have uneven impacts, while more complex or targeted policies may fail to shift fertility at all.
“Looking ahead, policies that support fertility while maintaining or enhancing workforce participation will become increasingly critical.”
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