New study challenges link between arming police and officer shootings

Monash University

A landmark study from Monash University has found that routine arming of police officers does not lead to a spike in officer-involved shootings. The research, which investigated 50 years of officer-involved shootings in Australia between 1970 and 2020, challenges the prevailing assumption that increased firearm availability among police inevitably results in higher rates of lethal force.

While police in most countries are routinely armed, the question of arming persists in a handful of countries including England, New Zealand, Norway and Scotland. This is often due to concerns that arming officers could damage their relationship with the public or lead to a more authoritarian style of policing. 

Lead researcher Dr Ross Hendy, from the School of Social Sciences, said the findings provide crucial real-world evidence for countries currently debating whether their police should carry guns.

“The data shows that the transition to routine arming, moving from a system where officers chose when to carry a gun to a requirement that they wear one at all times on duty, was not followed by an increase in shootings. In fact, after these policy changes in the early 1990s, we actually saw a downward trend in shooting rates,” Dr Hendy said.

“While the research does not suggest that routinely arming police directly caused the decrease in shootings, our findings clearly contradict the long-held view that more guns on belts inevitably lead to more people being shot. Our analysis remained consistent across multiple scientific methods: making firearms a standard part of the uniform did not lead to an increase in violence."

The study, Does Routine Arming Increase Police Officer-Involved Shootings? Evidence From Australia (1970–2020), analysed officer-involved shootings following New South Wales (in 1991) and Victoria (in 1993) changing their rules to make guns a mandatory part of the police equipment. Because there is no official national database for non-fatal shootings, the researchers tracked 581 shooting incidents by cross-checking decades of news archives with official coronial and police reports.

Dr Zarina Vakhitova, a Senior Lecturer in Criminology at the School of Social Sciences, said the findings suggest that organisational and tactical environments, rather than simply the presence of a firearm, are the primary drivers of shooting outcomes.

“Our research suggests that arming police can be done safely if the right conditions are in place. When you combine arming with better tactical training and de-escalation protocols, it acts as a critical safeguard,” Dr Vakhitova said.

The findings highlight that routine arming should not be viewed as a simple equipment change, but rather as a multi-component policy shift. The study argues that for arming to be introduced without increasing harm, it must be paired with context-specific training that shifts the mindset from immediate firearm use to conflict resolution.

Dr Hendy noted that the Australian experience offers a blueprint for other jurisdictions, where the question of routine arming remains a point of intense public and political debate.

“This isn't just about whether a police officer carries a gun; it’s about the training, culture and accountability structures that surround that officer. When you invest in de-escalation and professional standards, the availability of a firearm does not automatically lead to its use. It is a structural and cultural issue as much as it is a policy one,” Dr Hendy said.

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